Tuesday, June 1, 2010

NBA Finals: Why the Lakers Will Win

The NBA Finals are just days away. And an historic clash of NBA titans awaits. The Lakers and Celtics have more NBA Titles combined that Alex and I have ex-girlfriends... and that, boys and girls, is saying something. To get you ready for the epic seven game tilt, I'll take a look at the series from both sides, starting with LA.

#1. Kobe Bryant is the best basketball player alive.
Before the Kobe-hating Lebrons lose their collective minds, I mean that his season is still alive. Kobe is the best baller still balling. While Lebron is talking with his "team" of advisers and Larry King, Kobe is making a joke of the Western Conference Playoffs -- shifting his game to otherworldly levels... even for him. After dispatching with the Thunder and Jazz (yawn...), Kobe averaged 33.7 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.2 rebounds a game against Phoenix. Despite the Lakers "struggles" with the Suns zone defense, Kobe kept draining contested jumper after contested jumper.
The Lakers were so dominant early in the Western Conference Finals thanks to huge efforts from Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. The series only lasted six games because Pow Pau and LO were largely absent from the box scores of games three through six. Gasol and Odom averaged 17 and 12 points, respectively, in those games. Even without the Lakers' bigs making significant contributions, the Lakers still scored over 100 points, only falling short in two games because they couldn't hold the Suns under 115 points themselves. What's more is that Kobe learned to pick his spots, pass out of double teams, rely on Derek Fisher and Ron Artest to hit jumpers and create lanes themselves. Kobe is at his complete game best and finally understands how to control the game without wasting possessions against smothering double teams.
My point is that Kobe will get the support he needs from Odom and Gasol in at least a couple of games during the Finals. Over the past couple of weeks, he proved he can carry the load to scratch out a couple more wins on his own.

#2. Ron Artest will drive Paul Pierce crazy.
Ron Artest may have many faults (say Queensbridge!), but his physical defense has been invaluable for the Lakers this postseason. Artest is the perfect defender for Kevin Durant and he put on a clinic harassing Durantula every inch of 94 feet in Round 1. Expect to see more of the same against Paul Pierce.
And lately, Pierce hasn't shown the MVP Finals form from two years ago. The past two years have limited his hops and ability to create off the dribble. And the Cleveland series showed that the task of guarding a top level player severely limits his offensive contribution. Pierce can play well in spurts, but he hasn't been able to create in late possessions when Boston needs him most.
Because Paul Pierce enjoyed blow-out wins against the Cavs and Magic, we didn't see much crunch time offense from the Celtics. But the little we did see was rather anemic. (Remember the Magic forcing overtime in Game 4?) Rondo is by far the best creator in Celtic green, but he defers to his veteran teammates in the final possessions. Considering that refs typically swallow their whistles in the closing seconds of the NBA Finals, the Lakers should enjoy a decided advantage with Artest bodying up on Pierce.

3. Boston's bench or lack thereof.
The Suns bench did put on a show in the WCF, but Boston won't play anywhere near the fast pace of the Suns. And let's don't forget how banged up Boston is right now. Big Baby? Concussed. Rasheed Wallace? Back spasms. Rondo? Still banged up from a scary fall. And while Kendrick Perkins isn't injured, he's one technical foul away from a one game suspension.
Also, consider that the Lakers don't employ a true four or five man second unit. Lamar Odom, arguably the third most valuable Laker, comes off the bench for 35-40 minutes a night. Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, and Shasha Vujacic collectively back up Ron Artest, Derek Fisher, and Kobe Bryant. The Lakers use a mix of 2-3 starters and reserves for their bench. If LA can run and get one or two of their shooters a hot hand, look out.
Even if the C's are 100% healthy, Rasheed Wallace, Glen Davis, and Kendrick Perkins aren't designed to guard Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol when they face up to the basket in the post. The Celtics dominated the Magic with a physical, post-clogging defense. The Lakers would be wise to use the triangle offense and their athletic bigs to stretch Boston's vaunted defense.

In sum, the stars are aligned in Hollywood. This could be Phil Jackson's last hurrah. Kobe needs this fifth ring to inch closer to Michael Jordan and eclipse Magic Johnson in Laker lore. Gasol is a more tougher, mature post player. Artest desperately wants to prove he's a worthy addition.to a title contender. This isn't the 2008 Lakers. This is a veteran squad hungry to etch their name in NBA history.

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